11:48 AM, 15 November 2024 PST

A Shift in the Balance of Power in the Black Sea

WORLD

Kyiv, Ukraine – In a remarkable turn of events, Ukraine’s naval forces have successfully challenged the once-dominant Russian Black Sea Fleet, reshaping the dynamics in the Black Sea region. After years of Russian control, Ukraine is regaining its foothold in territorial waters. This development follows a series of daring Ukrainian attacks, showcasing the country’s determination to reclaim its lands.

The phrase “Russian warship, go f*** yourself!” became emblematic during the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict when Ukrainian servicemen stationed on Snake Island in the Black Sea defiantly refused to surrender to a Russian warship. However, by early 2022, it appeared that the Russian Black Sea Fleet had gained near-complete control over Ukraine’s territorial waters, causing havoc in cities like Odesa and interfering with Ukraine’s vital grain and sunflower oil exports.

Ukraine’s response has been nothing short of astounding. Satellite imagery reveals the rapid relocation of Russian vessels from Sevastopol, Crimea, to Novorossiisk, signaling a significant shift in the balance of power. Ukraine’s attacks with Western-supplied cruise missiles and domestically assembled drones have devastated Russian flagships, submarines, and even air defense systems, crippling the enemy’s capabilities.

The destruction of a major shipyard in Crimea was a critical blow, as it hampered Russia’s ability to repair aging ships. Consequently, many Russian vessels were moved to Novorossiisk. On September 22, Ukraine further struck a blow by partially destroying the Fleet’s headquarters in Sevastopol, reducing Russia’s capacity to deploy troops near Odesa.

Ukraine’s success is all the more impressive considering the humble state of its navy, which had lost most of its ships during Crimea’s annexation in 2014. The threat of future sea drone attacks has deterred Russian ships, leading to a preference for smaller vessels that can navigate the Black Sea coast.

However, this shift has caused complications in Odesa’s port operations, reducing its capacity significantly. The irony is that Ukraine could have had control of the entire Black Sea Fleet if not for historical factors and economic constraints in the 1990s.

Moscow and Kyiv’s decision to run the fleet jointly ultimately favored Russia, which acquired the lion’s share of ships and assets. The lease of Sevastopol’s bases cost Russia nearly $100 million annually, solidifying the city’s economic dependence on the fleet.

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